Preseason Rankings
UC Irvine
Big West
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#90
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.2#225
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#132
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#53
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.9% 0.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.4% 43.7% 28.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.2% 3.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 13.8
.500 or above 90.5% 92.2% 73.1%
.500 or above in Conference 95.5% 96.0% 89.8%
Conference Champion 47.0% 48.7% 29.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 1.0%
First Four1.7% 1.7% 2.1%
First Round41.5% 42.7% 28.2%
Second Round10.4% 10.9% 5.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.5% 3.7% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho (Home) - 91.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 0.90.1 - 0.9
Quad 1b0.4 - 1.10.5 - 2.0
Quad 21.6 - 2.12.1 - 4.1
Quad 36.0 - 3.58.1 - 7.6
Quad 413.3 - 2.021.4 - 9.6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 262   Idaho W 72-61 91%    
  Nov 09, 2018 64   @ Texas A&M L 68-71 30%    
  Nov 15, 2018 217   @ Santa Clara W 70-61 70%    
  Nov 19, 2018 158   Texas San Antonio W 76-71 68%    
  Nov 20, 2018 195   Tulane W 74-67 73%    
  Nov 21, 2018 126   Toledo W 74-71 60%    
  Nov 28, 2018 59   @ St. Mary's L 65-68 28%    
  Dec 01, 2018 144   Utah St. W 71-67 73%    
  Dec 05, 2018 288   @ California Baptist W 75-63 79%    
  Dec 08, 2018 73   Montana L 69-71 55%    
  Dec 15, 2018 200   Denver W 72-64 82%    
  Dec 19, 2018 135   @ Eastern Michigan W 66-63 51%    
  Dec 21, 2018 33   @ Butler L 67-73 23%    
  Dec 29, 2018 168   @ Pacific W 72-66 59%    
  Jan 03, 2019 311   UT Rio Grande Valley W 82-68 93%    
  Jan 10, 2019 131   UC Davis W 68-65 69%    
  Jan 12, 2019 143   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 72-68 53%    
  Jan 16, 2019 189   Long Beach St. W 77-70 79%    
  Jan 19, 2019 342   @ Cal St. Northridge W 76-57 91%    
  Jan 23, 2019 201   @ Hawaii W 71-63 66%    
  Jan 26, 2019 282   UC Riverside W 73-61 89%    
  Jan 31, 2019 177   @ UC Santa Barbara W 72-66 60%    
  Feb 02, 2019 189   @ Long Beach St. W 77-70 63%    
  Feb 06, 2019 143   Cal St. Fullerton W 72-68 72%    
  Feb 09, 2019 201   Hawaii W 71-63 81%    
  Feb 16, 2019 177   UC Santa Barbara W 72-66 78%    
  Feb 21, 2019 317   Cal Poly W 75-60 93%    
  Feb 28, 2019 131   @ UC Davis W 68-65 50%    
  Mar 02, 2019 282   @ UC Riverside W 73-61 76%    
  Mar 07, 2019 317   @ Cal Poly W 75-60 83%    
  Mar 09, 2019 342   Cal St. Northridge W 76-57 97%    
Projected Record 21.4 - 9.6 12.0 - 4.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.2 5.3 11.0 13.6 10.8 5.1 47.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 6.1 8.0 5.1 1.1 21.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 5.3 4.8 1.7 0.2 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.3 2.8 0.6 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.1 2.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.6 6.6 9.7 12.6 15.1 16.3 14.7 10.8 5.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 5.1    5.1
15-1 100.0% 10.8    10.4 0.3
14-2 92.6% 13.6    11.0 2.6 0.0
13-3 67.5% 11.0    6.5 4.1 0.4 0.0
12-4 35.1% 5.3    1.8 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
11-5 9.4% 1.2    0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
10-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 47.0% 47.0 34.9 10.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 5.1% 91.6% 80.6% 11.0% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 56.6%
15-1 10.8% 75.8% 68.5% 7.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.1 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.6 23.1%
14-2 14.7% 62.6% 59.9% 2.7% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.1 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.0 5.5 6.7%
13-3 16.3% 46.6% 45.8% 0.8% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.5 1.7 0.8 0.2 8.7 1.5%
12-4 15.1% 36.5% 36.2% 0.3% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.9 1.0 0.2 9.6 0.5%
11-5 12.6% 26.9% 26.8% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.4 9.2 0.2%
10-6 9.7% 20.6% 20.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 7.7
9-7 6.6% 16.6% 16.6% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 5.5
8-8 4.6% 11.9% 11.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 4.1
7-9 2.4% 8.9% 8.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2
6-10 1.1% 3.8% 3.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
5-11 0.5% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-12 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 42.4% 40.5% 1.9% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.5 4.3 8.7 9.5 7.4 4.4 2.5 57.6 3.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.8 0.9 10.3 42.8 10.3 27.2 8.4